After India banned TikTok, the app’s largest market, four years ago, a seismic shift occurred. With a user base of 200 million, TikTok was a thriving universe of expanding subcultures, offering transformative opportunities for content creators and influencers.

However, TikTok’s unrelenting rise faced a colossal obstacle when Sino-Indian border tensions erupted into violence. In response, the Indian government took drastic measures, banning the app on June 29, 2020, leading to its rapid disappearance.

Despite the ban, Indian TikTok accounts and videos remain online, frozen in time, capturing the moment when the app reigned as a cultural giant.

This Indian saga not only highlights the fragility of geopolitical relations but also serves as a potential harbinger of what other nations, including the United States, might face.

On April 24, U.S. President Joe Biden signed a bill that could lead to TikTok’s ban in the country, marking the culmination of years of debates over security risks associated with the app.

The legislation requires TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, to sell its stake in the app within the next nine months, with an additional three-month grace period, or face a potential U.S. ban.

ByteDance has stated it has no intention of selling the social media platform and has vowed to challenge the legislation in court.

If TikTok is banned, it would mark an unprecedented event in American tech history, though the app’s fate remains uncertain due to the impending legal battle.

India’s experience illustrates what can happen when a major country removes TikTok from its citizens’ smartphones.

However, India is not alone in this decision: in November 2023, Nepal also announced plans to ban TikTok, while Pakistan has implemented a series of temporary bans since 2020.

As the 150 million U.S. users anxiously await the unfolding of events, India’s TikTok ban underscores users’ ability to adapt quickly and reveals that when TikTok disappears, a significant part of its culture is also lost.

Sucharita Tyagi, a Mumbai-based film critic, saw her TikTok account with 11,000 followers vanish overnight, leaving behind videos with millions of views.

The app stood out for its algorithm, which provided opportunities for rural Indian users to find an audience and achieve celebrity status, something difficult on other apps.

In the United States, TikTok carries similar cultural significance, where niche communities flourish, and countless small businesses and content creators rely on the app for their livelihoods.

This kind of success is less common on other social media platforms. For instance, Instagram typically focuses on content consumption from profiles with large followings, whereas TikTok encourages ordinary users to post.

The TikTok ban in India was not an isolated case. The government also banned 58 other Chinese apps, including some gaining popularity in the U.S., such as Shein’s fashion app.

Over the years, India has banned more than 100 Chinese apps, though an Indian version of Shein has returned after recent negotiations.

This sequence of events could repeat itself in the United States. The new legislation sets a precedent and provides a mechanism for the U.S. government to ban other Chinese apps.

The privacy and national security concerns expressed by politicians regarding TikTok could equally apply to various other companies. Furthermore, when a popular app is banned, it creates room for others to fill the void.

For months, India’s tech scene has been dominated by news of these new social media companies, with names like Chingari, Moj, and MX Taka Tak emerging.

Some of these startups have achieved initial success, attracting former TikTok stars to their platforms, securing investments, and even receiving government support. This has led to a fragmentation of India’s social media market, with new apps competing for supremacy. However, the post-TikTok gold rush ultimately proved short-lived.

Geet, an Indian influencer known only by her first name, rose to fame on TikTok by teaching “American English,” offering life advice, and delivering motivational speeches. She had 10 million followers across three accounts when TikTok was banned.

In a 2020 interview, Geet expressed concerns about her career’s future. However, four years later, she has managed to amass nearly five million followers on Instagram and YouTube.

Four years after the ban in India, Instagram and YouTube are now established platforms for short videos. Even LinkedIn is experimenting with a TikTok-style video feed.

The app’s competitors have shown they don’t need to replicate TikTok’s culture exactly to succeed.

It’s highly likely that hyper-local and niche content in the U.S. would vanish, following what happened in India. In fact, the cultural consequences in the U.S. would be even more significant.

According to a Pew Research Center survey, nearly one-third of Americans aged 18 to 29 get their news from TikTok.

Although the U.S. has fewer TikTok users than India had at its peak (200 million), it’s important to note that India’s population is 1.4 billion. TikTok has about 170 million users in the U.S., more than half the country’s population.

“When India banned TikTok, the app hadn’t yet achieved the giant status it holds now,” notes Tyagi. “It has become a cultural revolution in recent years. I believe banning it now in the U.S. would have a much bigger impact.”

Moreover, TikTok’s response to a potential U.S. ban has already proven different. The company has vowed to contest the new U.S. government law in a legal battle that could even reach the Supreme Court. However, after the ban in India, TikTok chose not to file a similar lawsuit.

“Chinese companies have good reasons to hesitate in challenging the Indian government in court,” explains Roy. “I don’t believe they would find much support there.”

Additionally, the ban in India was swift, taking effect within weeks. On the other hand, TikTok’s legal challenge in the U.S. could delay the law for years, with no guarantee the legislation would withstand a court battle.

There’s also a much greater likelihood that a U.S. TikTok ban would spark a trade war.

“I believe there’s a clear possibility of retaliation from China,” says Pahwa.

Although China criticized India for banning TikTok, there has been no direct retaliation. The U.S. may not be as fortunate.

Several factors explain China’s response to the Indian ban. One is that India’s tech industry is virtually nonexistent in China. On the other hand, the U.S. tech industry offers several opportunities for countermeasures. China has already launched an effort to “delete the U.S.” and replace American technology with domestic alternatives. A TikTok ban could accelerate this project.

“The TikTok ban felt abrupt,” recalls Tyagi. “For me, it didn’t have a major impact since I was only using the app to promote my other work. But it felt strange and unfair to many people, especially those who were genuinely earning money and doing business with brands.”

Losing TikTok didn’t affect Tyagi’s livelihood but did cut her access to her account. That is, until she traveled to the U.S. “When I visited the U.S., I was surprised to see that my profile was still active,” Tyagi recounts.

It was like a time machine. She even posted a few videos. Most of her followers, of course, couldn’t view them in their home country, but she gained some engagement from Indians living abroad.

“Those millions of accounts are still there,” Tyagi notes.

“It’s interesting to see that TikTok kept them. I wonder if they’re hoping India will allow them back.”