The year 2024 marks a new historical record in defense investments, with global military spending reaching $2.46 trillion, a 7.4% increase compared to the previous year. The data is part of the Military Balance, an annual study conducted by the renowned International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), which analyzes global military sector trends and challenges.

The significant rise in military budgets reflects a period of global instability, as countries strengthen their military capabilities to address ongoing conflicts, rising geopolitical tensions, and emerging threats. The research highlights that all regions of the world saw an increase in military spending, except for Sub-Saharan Africa, which maintained stable investments.

The global defense spending exceeds the GDP of several national economies, such as Brazil, which had an estimated GDP of $1.8 trillion in 2023, according to IBGE. This growth marks a new phase in the global arms race, primarily driven by three major factors:

1. The war in Ukraine, which continues to require substantial investments from both Russia and the countries supporting Kiev.
2. Increasing tensions in the Middle East, with conflicts pressuring the region and prompting new defense strategies.
3. The rivalry between China and the United States, fueling military technological advancements and new strategic positioning in the Indo-Pacific.

Since its outbreak in February 2022, the war between Russia and Ukraine has become one of the most costly conflicts of the 21st century. The IISS study points out that, once again, this conflict was the main driver of the global increase in military spending.

According to the report, Ukraine faces growing difficulties in maintaining the pace of combat, suffering significant depletion of personnel and equipment. The institute suggests that many ground units are operating with suboptimal staffing levels, and the shortage of ammunition and sophisticated weapons has directly impacted Kiev’s offensive capabilities.

However, the Ukrainian government maintains strict confidentiality regarding casualties and material losses, making it difficult to assess the situation fully. The information war has become as significant as the armed conflict, and the lack of transparency about real numbers is seen as part of the country’s resistance strategy.

On the other hand, Russia also faces considerable challenges. Although it has increased its arms production and received external support, primarily from Iran and North Korea, the country has suffered significant material losses. The IISS study reveals that, just in 2024, Moscow lost more than 1,400 tanks, as well as drones, fighter jets, and cutting-edge armored vehicles.

The analysis suggests that if Russia maintains this level of losses, it may struggle to sustain its offensive beyond 2026. In response, the Kremlin has intensified cooperation with strategic allies, seeking missile, drone, and ammunition supplies to compensate for the growing shortage on the front lines.

Member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) have also increased their military investments to strengthen their defenses against external threats. Currently, the total budget of the military alliance is $1.44 trillion, with Europe contributing less than one-third of that amount.

However, many countries within the bloc have not yet reached the minimum target of 2% of GDP in military spending, a commitment set by NATO. This discrepancy has faced criticism, especially from former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has stated that he could suspend military aid to countries failing to meet this benchmark.

Even so, some European countries have increased their defense investments in recent years, including:

• Germany: After decades of military restraint, Berlin increased its defense budget by 23.2% since the onset of the war in Ukraine, becoming the largest European military power within NATO.
• Poland: Concerned about potential Russian aggression, Warsaw has significantly strengthened its armed forces, now holding the 15th largest military budget in the world.

Additionally, other countries like France, the United Kingdom, and Norway have adopted similar strategies, investing more in cybersecurity, cutting-edge armaments, and strategic partnerships with the United States.

Another notable point in the report is the significant increase in military spending in Asia, particularly in China and its strategic neighbors. The study shows that Beijing continues to expand its military force at an accelerated pace, heavily investing in:

• Warships and nuclear submarines to reinforce its presence in the South China Sea.
• The development of hypersonic missiles, capable of threatening targets at long distances.
• Military applications of artificial intelligence, including autonomous drones and advanced defense systems.

The United States, in turn, has intensified its presence in the Indo-Pacific, strengthening alliances with Japan, South Korea, and Australia to counter China’s influence. As a result, Washington has further increased its investments in military bases in the region, as well as consolidating new defense strategies to deal with potential threats from Beijing.

The IISS report suggests that the current situation signals a new era of global rearmament, where major powers seek to consolidate their military presence and prepare for long-term geopolitical challenges. Among the main trends for the coming years, the following stand out:

• The modernization of armed forces through artificial intelligence and military automation.
• Increased investments in cybersecurity defense, in light of the rise in digital attacks and hybrid warfare.
• Strengthened military alliances and the reconfiguration of strategic blocs.
• Potential expansion of regional conflicts, which could directly impact the global economy and national security policies.

Experts warn that if the current rate of growth in military spending continues, the $2.46 trillion record could be surpassed in the coming years, fueling a new escalation of international tensions.

In light of this, the world is approaching a new chapter in global geopolitics, where security and defense once again occupy a central space in government and military alliance strategies. The challenge now will be to balance the strengthening of armed forces with the pursuit of stability and diplomatic dialogue, avoiding a new cycle of large-scale conflicts.