The global population is projected to grow by approximately 23% by 2060, while global GDP is expected to increase by around 150%.
Economics is often portrayed as a discipline that seeks to meet human needs through the use of natural resources, frequently at the expense of environmental degradation. This approach is recognized as problematic by the International Resource Panel (IRP) of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). In its “Global Resources Outlook” report, released every five years, the IRP warns of a triple planetary crisis: climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution and waste.
Data presented in the report reveal a concerning trend of increasing material extraction, including biomass, fossil fuels, metallic and non-metallic minerals, over the decades. For example, annual material extraction grew from 30.9 billion tons in 1970 to 95.1 billion tons in 2020, with an estimated 106.5 billion tons in 2024.
Although the extraction rate has varied over time, a significant average growth has been observed. Between 1970 and 2000, the extraction rate was 2.1% per year, increasing to 3.5% between 2000 and 2012. However, there was a slowdown to 1% per year between 2012 and 2020 due to the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. After the post-pandemic recovery, the average extraction rate accelerated again, reaching 2.9% per year.
These data highlight the urgency of addressing how the global economy utilizes natural resources, particularly in light of the environmental challenges facing the planet. The report underscores the need for a transition to a more sustainable economic model that considers not only human well-being but also environmental health and preservation.
Over the past five decades, significant changes have occurred in material use composition, reflecting a shift from an agrarian to an industrial metabolism. In 1970, biomass was the largest material use category, representing 41% of the total. However, its share declined to 33% in 2000 and 26% in 2020. In contrast, non-metallic minerals emerged as the largest category in 2020, accounting for 48% of total material use, up from 31% in 1970.
Moreover, resource extraction has outpaced global population growth. The global average per capita material demand has increased over time, from 8.4 tons in 1970 to 12.2 tons in 2020, reaching 13.2 tons in 2024.
Economic growth has been the primary driver behind increased natural resource extraction. Data indicate significant global population growth, with a substantial demographic shift toward urban areas. Simultaneously, global GDP has experienced substantial growth, rising from approximately $18 trillion in 1970 to an estimated $93 trillion in 2024. This has translated into an increase in global per capita income, projected to reach around $12,000 in 2024, representing a 2.4-fold increase compared to 1970.
As the global population grows and increasingly concentrates in urban and industrial areas, environmental pressures intensify, leading to greater environmental degradation and increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This environmental unsustainability is becoming increasingly evident, and in the absence of action, the risk of ecological collapse becomes more imminent.
Global economic activity levels have already exceeded the planet’s carrying capacity, as demonstrated by previous studies. The global production of goods and services has surpassed limits set for several of the nine planetary boundaries, as indicated in previous reports.
Despite climate crises, the sixth mass extinction of species, and widespread pollution of water, soil, and air, it is estimated that the global economy will continue increasing ecological exploitation until 2060. Modeling indicates a potential scenario where natural resource exploitation would significantly increase, rising from 100 billion tons in 2020 to 160 billion tons by the 2050s.
This increase would be driven by a 23% population growth, reaching approximately 10 billion people by 2060, along with a 150% increase in global GDP. While this may result in a higher Human Development Index (HDI), it would come at the cost of a 59% increase in primary energy consumption, a 51% increase in biomass extraction (food and fibers), and a 23% increase in greenhouse gas emissions.
The model also predicts growth in the extraction of metallic and non-metallic minerals, especially those crucial for driving the energy transition and achieving net-zero emissions. It is estimated that more than 3 billion tons of transition energy minerals and metals for wind, solar, and other renewable sources will be required to keep temperatures below 2°C by 2050.
It is highly likely that global demographic and economic growth will continue over the next four decades. Despite a slowing population growth rate, the global population is expected to continue rising, creating significant pressure for increased per capita consumption, particularly in lower-income countries that comprise the majority of the global population. The crucial challenge is ensuring human development without further compromising environmental sustainability.
The urgency of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is evident. Between 1970 and 2020, global GDP grew by approximately 600%, while natural resource extraction increased by about 400%. This indicates a relative decoupling, where global GDP growth outpaced the increase in global environmental resource extraction. As a result, resources have been used more efficiently for each unit of goods and services produced.
However, what the world truly needs is absolute decoupling—promoting sustainable economic growth that enhances human well-being while reducing natural resource extraction. Targeted and coordinated sustainability actions can reduce the amount of resources used and their environmental impacts while ensuring continuous socioeconomic well-being for all. This involves decoupling human well-being from resource use, as well as dissociating resource use from its environmental impacts.
The “Global Resources Outlook 2024” report emphasizes that the concept of decoupling cannot be uniformly applied to all people and regions of the world. For wealthier populations with larger ecological footprints, actions should focus on absolute decoupling, which entails reducing resource use. This can be achieved through measures such as adopting diets with less animal protein, developing more compact cities, and promoting public transportation, which have the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40% to 70% by 2050.
On the other hand, in contexts where resource use is expected to grow to ensure a more dignified life, the focus should be on relative decoupling, where resource use increases at a slower rate than human well-being improvements. These differentiated pathways for resource use and decoupling relate to the concept of sufficiency, which is gaining prominence on the political agenda. Furthermore, the concept of a “fair consumption space” underscores the need to curb excessive consumption while ensuring adequate consumption to meet basic needs with human dignity.
