The global population is projected to grow by about 23% by 2060, while global GDP is expected to rise by approximately 150%.
Economics is often portrayed as a discipline that seeks to meet human needs through the utilization of natural resources, frequently at the expense of environmental degradation. This approach has been identified as problematic by the International Resource Panel (IRP) of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). In its “Global Resources Outlook” report, published every five years, the IRP highlights a triple planetary crisis encompassing climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution and waste.
The report’s data reveal a concerning trend of increased material extraction, including biomass, fossil fuels, and metallic and non-metallic minerals, over the decades. For instance, annual material extraction grew from 30.9 billion tons in 1970 to 95.1 billion tons in 2020, with projections reaching 106.5 billion tons by 2024.
Although the extraction rate has varied over time, significant average growth has been observed. Between 1970 and 2000, the extraction rate was 2.1% per year, rising to 3.5% between 2000 and 2012. However, it slowed to 1% per year from 2012 to 2020 due to the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. After post-pandemic recovery, the average extraction rate accelerated again, reaching 2.9% annually.
This data underscores the urgency of addressing how the global economy utilizes natural resources, especially given the environmental challenges the planet faces. The report emphasizes the need for a transition to a more sustainable economic model that considers not only human well-being but also the health and preservation of the environment.
Over the past five decades, significant changes have occurred in the composition of material usage, reflecting a shift from an agrarian metabolism to an industrial metabolism. In 1970, biomass accounted for the largest share of material use, representing 41% of the total. However, its share dropped to 33% in 2000 and 26% in 2020. In contrast, non-metallic minerals emerged as the largest category in 2020, comprising 48% of the total, up from 31% in 1970.
Additionally, resource extraction has outpaced global population growth. The global average of per capita material demand has increased over time, from 8.4 tons in 1970 to 12.2 tons in 2020, reaching 13.2 tons by 2024.
Economic growth has been the primary driver of increased natural resource extraction. Data indicates significant global population growth, with a substantial demographic shift toward urban areas. Simultaneously, global GDP experienced substantial growth, rising from approximately $18 trillion in 1970 to an estimated $93 trillion by 2024. This translated into an increase in global per capita income, expected to reach about $12,000 in 2024, a 2.4-fold growth compared to 1970.
As the global population grows and increasingly concentrates in urban and industrial areas, pressure on environmental systems intensifies, leading to greater environmental degradation and increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This environmental unsustainability is becoming increasingly evident, and in the absence of action, the risk of ecological collapse becomes more imminent.
Global economic activity levels have already exceeded the planet’s carrying capacity, as demonstrated by previous studies. The global production of goods and services has surpassed the limits set for several of the nine planetary boundaries, as indicated in prior research.
Despite climate crises, the sixth mass extinction of species, and widespread pollution of water, soil, and air, the global economy is projected to continue increasing ecological exploitation through 2060. Modeling indicates a potential scenario where natural resource exploitation significantly rises from 100 billion tons in 2020 to 160 billion tons by the 2050s.
This increase would be driven by a 23% population growth, reaching approximately 10 billion people by 2060, alongside a 150% rise in global GDP. While this could result in higher Human Development Index (HDI) scores, it would come at the cost of a 59% increase in primary energy consumption, a 51% increase in biomass extraction (food and fibers), and a 23% rise in GHG emissions.
The model also predicts growth in the exploitation of metallic and non-metallic minerals, particularly those critical to driving the energy transition and achieving net-zero emissions. An estimated 3 billion tons of energy transition minerals and metals for wind, solar, and other renewable energy sources will be needed to keep global temperatures below 2°C by 2050.
It is highly likely that global demographic and economic growth will continue over the next four decades. Despite a slowing population growth rate, the global population is expected to increase, creating significant pressure to raise per capita consumption, especially in low-income countries that represent the majority of the world’s population. The crucial challenge is ensuring human development without further compromising environmental sustainability.
The urgency regarding the Sustainable Development Goals is clear. Between 1970 and 2020, global GDP grew by approximately 600%, while natural resource extraction increased by around 400%. This indicates relative decoupling, where global GDP growth outpaced the growth of environmental resource extraction. There has, therefore, been more efficient resource use for each unit of goods and services produced.
However, what the world truly needs is absolute decoupling, which entails promoting sustainable economic growth that enhances human well-being while reducing natural resource extraction. Targeted and coordinated sustainability actions can reduce resource use and environmental impacts while ensuring continuous socioeconomic well-being for all. This involves decoupling human well-being from resource use, as well as decoupling resource use from environmental impacts.
The Global Resources Outlook 2024 report emphasizes that the concept of decoupling cannot be uniformly applied to all people and regions globally. For wealthier segments of the population with higher ecological footprints, actions should aim at absolute decoupling, which involves reducing resource use. This can be achieved through measures such as adopting diets with less animal protein, developing more compact cities, and promoting public transportation, which have the potential to reduce GHG emissions by 40% to 70% by 2050.
Conversely, in contexts where resource use is expected to grow to ensure a dignified life, the focus should be on relative decoupling, where resource use increases at a slower pace than human well-being outcomes. These differentiated pathways for resource use and decoupling relate to the concept of sufficiency, which is gaining prominence on the political agenda. Additionally, the concept of “fair consumption space” emphasizes the need to curb excessive consumption while ensuring adequate consumption to meet basic needs with human dignity.
