The U.S. President’s Strategy Could Redefine Global Trade and Create Tensions Among Allies
The White House announced on Thursday (13) the adoption of a new import tariff model based on reciprocity, one of the cornerstones of President Donald Trump’s economic policy. The initiative, which has been discussed since the presidential campaign, aims to balance the U.S. trade deficit and reduce the advantage foreign companies would have over American ones when selling in the domestic market.
The new policy dictates that the U.S. will apply mirrored tariffs, meaning they will impose exactly the same import rate that any nation charges on American products. If a country imposes a 15% tax on an item exported by the U.S., the United States will begin taxing products from that same country with the same tariff upon entering U.S. territory. According to the White House, this strategy has three main objectives: reduce the trade deficit, encourage domestic production, and pressure other countries to lower their tariffs on American goods.
The government argues that over the years, the U.S. has allowed nations around the world to impose disproportionate restrictions on its exports without offering fair countermeasures. Now, Trump aims to reverse this situation, ensuring that American producers are treated on equal footing. The president also believes that this measure will force foreign companies to invest in manufacturing within the United States, creating jobs and strengthening the economy.
Revenue from the new tariffs could be used to finance a reduction in the tax burden on American companies, which is another commitment of the current administration. This point is seen as essential for increasing the competitiveness of businesses in the U.S., making the economic environment more favorable for entrepreneurs and investors.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has been appointed to lead the implementation of the tariff reciprocity plan. His main task will be to determine the specific tariffs each trading partner will need to pay to maintain access to the U.S. market. For this, Lutnick will rely on a specialized team that will analyze the import rates applied by different countries and adjust American tariffs accordingly.
Additionally, Lutnick will be responsible for negotiating bilateral agreements with the U.S.’s strategic allies. The U.S. government is interested in relaxing tariffs for countries willing to reduce their trade barriers against U.S. products. In the coming weeks, the secretary is expected to meet with representatives from the European Union, Canada, Mexico, Japan, and other important trading partners to try to reach agreements before the new rules are implemented.
Trump’s decision represents a significant shift toward protectionism in U.S. trade policy, which could lead to retaliations from other countries. The increase in import tariffs will make foreign products more expensive within the United States, which may benefit some local industries but also has the potential to raise prices for consumers and businesses that depend on imported inputs.
On the international front, the fear of a trade war is intensifying. China, already the target of various restrictive measures by the U.S., may respond with new tariffs on American products. The European Union, which has long advocated for free trade policies, may also take measures to protect its industries.
The U.S. currently has one of the lowest import tariffs in the world, with a weighted average of 2.2% on foreign goods. In comparison, countries like Brazil impose significantly higher tariffs—Brazil’s average tariff on imported products is 6.7%. With the reciprocity policy, Brazilian exporters could face a substantial increase in costs to access the U.S. market, potentially impacting sectors like agribusiness, manufacturing, and technology.
Brazil is one of the countries that could be most affected by the new policy, as the U.S. is one of its main trading partners. Currently, Brazilian products exported to the U.S., such as steel, beef, and orange juice, already face some barriers, and the imposition of reciprocal tariffs could make the competitiveness of national producers even more difficult.
Moreover, Trump sent a direct warning to the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), threatening severe sanctions if the bloc’s countries attempt to adopt an alternative currency to the dollar for international transactions.
“If they try to play with the dollar, they will be hit with 100% tariffs on the very same day they mention that idea,” the president stated.
This statement reflects the U.S. government’s concerns about discussions among emerging countries on ways to reduce reliance on the dollar in global trade. In recent years, China and Russia have sought alternatives to conduct international transactions in their own currencies, and even Brazil has debated this possibility in trade agreements with strategic partners.
Trump’s threat escalates tensions between the U.S. and BRICS countries, which already face commercial and diplomatic sanctions imposed by the U.S. in other areas. If tariff reciprocity is enacted and combined with punitive surcharges for countries that challenge the dollar’s hegemony, global trade may enter a period of instability and reconfiguration of production chains.
Despite the official announcement, it remains unclear whether the White House will proceed with the full implementation of reciprocal tariffs or if the measure will be used as a negotiation tool to pressure other countries to reduce their own trade barriers.
Experts note that Trump often uses tariff threats as a way to gain concessions in trade agreements, as seen with the renegotiation of NAFTA, which resulted in the current U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). However, if tariff reciprocity is truly implemented comprehensively, the impact could be profound, reshaping international trade and forcing companies worldwide to reassess their export and investment strategies.
American business leaders have already expressed concern over the potential side effects of the measure, especially those who rely on foreign inputs to manufacture their products. An increase in tariffs could lead to price hikes and even a reduction in the competitiveness of strategic U.S. industrial sectors.
On the other hand, supporters of the initiative argue that the measure is essential to reverse the U.S. trade deficit and ensure that the U.S. is treated fairly in global trade. According to Trump, tariff reciprocity will not only strengthen the national economy but also create a more balanced environment for international competition.
In the coming months, the international market will be watching closely for developments in this decision. If other countries respond with similar measures, the world could enter a new era of economic protectionism, marking a break from decades of globalization and market openness.
Donald Trump’s decision to implement tariff reciprocity represents a turning point in U.S. trade policy. If carried out, the measure could reshape global trade and challenge the traditional rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO), which has historically advocated for reducing barriers and liberalizing markets.
The real impact of the policy will depend on the reactions of the U.S.’s trading partners and the ability of the U.S. government to negotiate favorable concessions. Regardless, the initiative places the world in front of a new economic scenario, where tariff disputes could become more frequent and unpredictable.
