In a scenario of high expectations and political complexity, nearly 53 million German citizens will head to the polls on Sunday, February 23, for the early Bundestag elections, the federal parliament of Germany. With a politically engaged population, this election stands out due to the political turmoil that led to the dissolution of Parliament, prompting elections amid a crisis that shook the federal government. The renewal of the Bundestag will be crucial not only for forming a new government but also for determining the political directions the country will take in the coming years.
The tense political climate began to take shape in late 2024 when the coalition government leading Germany collapsed due to deep disagreements over the country’s economic and financial policies. Chancellor Olaf Scholz was forced to dismiss his finance minister after internal disputes and criticisms of how the German economy was being managed. The political environment became even more unstable when Scholz himself called for a vote of no confidence, which, surprisingly, ended in defeat. With the loss of parliamentary support, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier opted to dissolve the Bundestag and call for early elections, aiming to restore confidence in the political system and offer the population the opportunity to choose a new government.
Thus, this electoral process takes place in a context of political uncertainty and growing distrust in the ruling authorities, making the 2025 elections even more important for German democracy. The election of new parliamentarians will determine not only the composition of the new government but also the course of Germany’s domestic and foreign policies in the coming years, especially on issues such as immigration, the economy, the environment, and European integration.
Friedrich Merz is the clear favorite to become Germany’s next chancellor in the upcoming elections. At 69 years old, Merz is a veteran politician known for his conservative stance and his association with the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which traditionally espouses a center-right ideology and conservative values. The CDU, currently leading in the polls, has about 30% of voter intentions, reflecting growing support for Merz’s candidacy. Additionally, Merz’s party is in a coalition with the Christian Social Union (CSU), a conservative political force from Bavaria, which reinforces the conservative profile of his platform.
Merz aims to recover the ground lost by the CDU in the last elections when Angela Merkel’s party experienced a significant drop in popularity. One of the main pillars of his campaign is to toughen immigration policies. In a recent speech to CNN, Merz stated that he would control Germany’s borders and take severe actions against immigrants arriving without documentation. This stance is a direct response to the growing debate on immigration and the increasing political tensions surrounding the issue.
Another key figure in the polls is Alice Weidel, leader of the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD), which ranks second in voter intentions with about 20%. The 46-year-old economist has gained attention for her radical positions and anti-immigration views. Weidel is a staunch critic of “mass immigration,” a central theme of her political platform. Although the AfD has gained strength in recent elections, it faces considerable political isolation within the parliamentary system, as major German parties, including the CDU, SPD, and Greens, have established agreements not to form coalitions with the far-right party.
However, the current Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) remains an important figure in the political scene, despite his party ranking third in the polls with 16% of voter intentions. Scholz, who has held the position since 2021, has expressed confidence in his reelection, stating in an interview that he believes he has a 60% chance of staying in office. His center-left party has championed social policies, such as raising the minimum wage and creating measures to reduce the cost of living, particularly for lower-income classes. The SPD also advocates for greater progressivity in the tax system, proposing higher taxes on higher incomes, one of the most controversial measures in its agenda.
In Germany, the selection of the chancellor does not occur through a direct vote from the population, meaning that citizens do not directly elect the head of government but instead vote for the members of the Bundestag. This indirect representation system is characterized by a combination of direct and proportional voting, which ensures a balanced representation of various political forces in parliament.
Germany’s electoral system allows each voter to cast two votes. The first vote is used to choose a candidate in the voter’s electoral district, who can be affiliated with a party or independent. Germany is divided into 299 electoral districts, which reflect an administrative division into states and municipalities, and the most voted candidates in each district become members of the Bundestag.
The second vote is for choosing a party. This second vote plays a crucial role in determining the composition of the Bundestag, as it dictates how many seats each party will have in the lower house of parliament. Parties that receive more votes are allocated more seats, which can significantly alter the political dynamic and coalition formation. To ensure that only parties with a minimum level of popular support can form a bench in the Bundestag, the law requires parties to obtain at least 5% of the total votes to be considered in the seat allocation.
After the election, the various parties must negotiate and form coalitions to secure a parliamentary majority, which in many cases results in complex agreements that can influence the selection of the new chancellor. Due to the system of multiple representation, coalitions are a fundamental feature of German politics, and it is unlikely that a single party will form a government without the support of others.
With the Bundestag’s seat count at 733, Germany has the largest freely elected parliament among democracies worldwide. However, starting in 2025, a new electoral reform will permanently reduce the number of parliamentarians to 630. This measure aims to increase legislative efficiency and reduce administrative costs, as the expansion of seats has faced criticism for excessive bureaucracy and rising expenses related to parliament’s operations.
In 2024, the Bundestag’s budget was approximately 250 million euros more than the 2019 budget, reflecting the growing complexity of parliamentary operations. The reform, which seeks to limit the number of seats, is a direct response to these concerns and is expected to significantly impact how the German parliament operates in the future.
Additionally, the 2025 election will be marked by the participation of more than 2.3 million first-time voters, representing a significant change in the electorate’s composition and potentially reflecting new political priorities among younger generations.
These elections represent a turning point for Germany at a time of deep internal political divisions and economic and social challenges. The choice of the new Bundestag and, consequently, the new chancellor will have repercussions not only for Germany but for the entire European Union, considering the vital role the country plays in the continent’s politics.
With increasing polarization, immigration being a central issue in the political debate, and the need for strong leadership capable of uniting the country, the 2025 elections will undoubtedly mark a milestone in Germany’s recent history, with the population deciding which direction the country will take in the coming years.
