Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned the West that the country is technically prepared for nuclear war. He stated that if the United States deploys troops to Ukraine, it would be considered a significant escalation of the conflict.
Russia, the inheritor of the Soviet Union’s nuclear weapons, possesses the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear warheads.
According to the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), Putin oversees approximately 5,580 nuclear warheads. Of these, around 1,200 are “retired” but remain largely intact. Additionally, about 4,380 warheads are stored for use in long-range strategic launchers and short-range tactical nuclear forces.
Among the stored warheads, approximately 1,710 strategic warheads are already deployed. Around 870 are on land-based ballistic missiles, about 640 on submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and possibly 200 at heavy bomber bases.
These numbers illustrate that Moscow has the capacity to cause global devastation.
During the Cold War, the Soviet Union reached a peak of around 40,000 nuclear warheads, while the United States had approximately 30,000.
According to Russia’s 2020 published nuclear doctrine, the circumstances for using nuclear weapons would primarily be in response to another nuclear attack, attacks using weapons of mass destruction, or “when the very existence of the Russian state is under threat.” This doctrine establishes a defensive posture, where the use of nuclear weapons is seen as an extreme measure of self-defense in the face of an existential threat to Russia’s national security.
The United States’ 2022 “Nuclear Posture Review” observed that both Russia and China were expanding and modernizing their nuclear forces. In response, Washington expressed its intention to adopt an arms-control approach to avoid costly arms races.
In its 2024 analysis of Russian forces, the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) noted that while Russia’s nuclear declarations and threatening rhetoric are cause for significant concern, its nuclear arsenal and operations have changed little since 2023 estimates, aside from ongoing modernization.
The FAS also noted that in the future, the number of warheads assigned to Russian strategic forces could increase as single-warhead missiles are replaced with missiles equipped with multiple warheads. This development suggests a potential evolution in Russia’s nuclear capabilities, which remains a subject of continuous monitoring and analysis by international observers.
Putin stated that Russia would consider conducting a nuclear test if the United States did so. The previous year, he signed a law revoking Russia’s ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT).
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, only a few countries have conducted nuclear tests, according to the Arms Control Association. The United States conducted its last test in 1992, China and France in 1996, India and Pakistan in 1998, and North Korea in 2017. The Soviet Union conducted its last test in 1990.
Post-Soviet Russia, however, has not conducted any nuclear tests. The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty was signed by Russia in 1996 and ratified in 2000. The United States signed the treaty in 1996 but has yet to ratify it. This scenario highlights the complexities and challenges surrounding nuclear testing and non-proliferation issues.
In Russia, the order to launch nuclear weapons is given by the Russian president, who holds ultimate authority over their use. The president carries the so-called “nuclear briefcase,” also known as the “Cheget,” named after Mount Cheget in the Caucasus Mountains. This briefcase is always with the president.
In addition to the president, it is believed that the Russian defense minister, currently Sergei Shoigu, and the Chief of the General Staff, currently Valery Gerasimov, also possess similar briefcases. These briefcases function as communication tools connecting the president to the military’s top command and, through the highly secretive electronic command-and-control network called “Kazbek,” to the rocket forces.
The Kazbek system, in turn, supports another system known as “Kavkaz.” Footage released by Russia’s Zvezda TV channel in 2019 shows one of these briefcases, featuring a series of buttons, including a white “start” button and a red “cancel” button in the “command” section. The briefcase is activated using a special flashcard, according to Zvezda. These systems and procedures reflect the complexity and gravity involved in deciding to use nuclear weapons in Russia.
If Russia perceives that it is facing a strategic nuclear attack, the president, via the nuclear briefcases, would send a direct launch order to the General Staff command and reserve command units holding the necessary nuclear codes. These orders would quickly cascade through communication systems to strategic rocket units, which would then launch strikes against targets in the United States and Europe.
If a nuclear attack is confirmed, Putin could activate the last-resort system known as “Dead Hand” or “Perimeter.” This system essentially delegates the decision to a computer to carry out a nuclear attack across Russia’s vast arsenal as an automatic response in the event of a loss of communication or human command. This scenario underscores the seriousness and potentially catastrophic implications involved in managing and using Russia’s nuclear arsenal.
Nuclear Weapons:
Nuclear weapons are explosive devices that derive their destructive power from nuclear reactions. They release immense energy from nuclear reactions, in contrast to conventional explosions that rely on chemical processes. Nuclear weapons can be categorized into two main types: nuclear bombs, also known as atomic bombs, and nuclear missiles.
Nuclear weapons have been the subject of intense debate and controversy due to their destructive power and the risks of nuclear proliferation. Since the first use of nuclear weapons during World War II in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, there has been a global effort to control and limit their spread. International treaties such as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) have been established to promote nuclear non-proliferation and work toward a world free of nuclear weapons. However, despite these efforts, many nations continue to maintain nuclear arsenals, and nuclear weapons remain one of the most urgent and complex challenges in international politics.
Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT):
The CTBT is an international agreement aimed at banning all explosive nuclear tests. The treaty was adopted by the United Nations General Assembly in September 1996 and opened for signature on September 24, 1996. It has not entered into force until ratified by a specific group of countries known as “Annex 2 states.”
The CTBT prohibits signatory countries from conducting explosive nuclear tests in any environment, whether underground, in the atmosphere, in space, or underwater. Additionally, the treaty establishes a comprehensive verification and monitoring regime to ensure compliance with its provisions.
The primary goal of the CTBT is to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons and promote nuclear disarmament while contributing to international security and world peace. By banning nuclear tests, the treaty aims to prevent the development of new nuclear weapons and discourage the modernization and enhancement of existing nuclear arsenals.
